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Prediction markets for Excel
OptionVotes
6880
4389
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.08%chance
11442405
OptionVotes
1455
687
OptionProbability
2507
2431
Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?
Sep 15, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
76.67%chance
1610591
OptionVotes
18131
5516
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39%chance
608337
OptionVotes
1254
802
OptionProbability
3149
2724
Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.58%chance
156839
OptionVotes
8427
3028
Will Lamine Yamal win The Fifa Best Young Player award at the World Cup?
Mar 25, 2:56 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM
18.41%chance
164537
OptionVotes
2105
475
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2026?
Jan 8, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
85.09%chance
162845
OptionVotes
1122
937
Which Microsoft software products will xAI compete with by the end of 2026?
Aug 25, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51183
OptionProbability
21
20
20
20
18
18
18
18
15
11
Will these Google/Microsoft Products will rebrand/deprecated/discontinued (In 2039 or less)?
Sep 23, 12:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
4136
OptionProbability
69
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
27
OptionVotes
95
53
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