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Prediction markets for Expo

Will it be exposed that Esmail Qaani is an Israeli spy, by EOY 2025

Oct 10, 12:37 PMJan 17, 9:59 PM

21.92%chance

1410015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1887

530

Nick Fuentes publicly comes out or is credibly exposed as gay/bisexual before 2026

Nov 22, 6:55 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

6.59%chance

214161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3766

266

Iran stops exporting oil to China in 2025?

Jun 20, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

15967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

585

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Is the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis true?

Feb 13, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

17701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

989

Will Usain Bolt be exposed as a drugs cheat by 2050?

Jun 1, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.68%chance

19650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.13%chance

22565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

835

Before 2050, will any human pass out from exposure to vacuum in space and then survive?

Mar 1, 12:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.21%chance

13531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

960

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

51.73%chance

6522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.8%chance

23513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

868

Will China still be the world's leading exporter (in USD) by the end of 2028?

Oct 21, 4:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.74%chance

15471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

965

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:12 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.99%chance

10362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

954

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