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Prediction markets for Friends

Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 100k units by end of 2025?

Jul 31, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.52%chance

477284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4137

242

Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 10k units by end of 2025?

Jul 31, 6:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.16%chance

515200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

564

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.01%chance

341240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

944

Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?

Jul 1, 11:35 AMJul 8, 8:59 PM

75.49%chance

181057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will my friend’s altcoin portfolio outperform bitcoin between Halloween 2024 to Halloween 2025?

Oct 29, 2:26 AMNov 1, 4:59 AM

26.05%chance

8793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1685

593

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Will Smiling Friends be renewed for a 4th season by Adult Swim by the end of 2025?

Jun 14, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.54%chance

12762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.6%chance

11686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

696

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

When will my friend lose his virginity?

Apr 9, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14415

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.47%chance

7410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

709

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.86%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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