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Top stories

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

Authors

54

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Friends

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

58.16%chance

132336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

848

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.81%chance

351265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

932

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.06%chance

181137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

659

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.68%chance

91020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

495

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

How many universities my friend applied to will he be accepted to?

Feb 26, 2:54 AMMay 2, 12:00 AM

4575

OptionProbability

8 - 11

12 - 15

4 - 7

16 - 19

20 - 24

71

13

8

5

3

Where will my single hot friend find her man?

Nov 9, 7:10 PMDec 31, 6:43 PM

14574

OptionProbability

Other

At an EA (Effective Altruism) conference

LessWrong (LW) Meetup

Bay Area Taco Tuesday

Manifold Markets Manifest

Secular Solstice

66

7

7

7

7

6

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar?

Dec 6, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

Will my Ukrainian friend die in the war in Ukraine?

May 7, 9:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

15.82%chance

11243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

336

166

Will two of my friends break up by the end of the semester?

Jan 20, 9:45 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

51%chance

3139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Crime
Celebrities
Los Angeles
‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose
Authors
54
7 months ago

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