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Prediction markets for Friends
Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 100k units by end of 2025?
Jul 31, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
4.44%chance
487784
OptionVotes
4637
216
Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 10k units by end of 2025?
Jul 31, 6:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.5%chance
535561
OptionVotes
1911
523
Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?
Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM
71.43%chance
92016
OptionVotes
1581
632
Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍♂️🤝💻
Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
67.01%chance
341240
OptionVotes
1058
944
OptionVotes
1755
570
Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15%chance
15782
OptionVotes
1675
819
Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?
Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.89%chance
13698
OptionVotes
1428
700
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893
Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?
May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.47%chance
7410
OptionVotes
1410
709
Friendly match between Russia and Argentina by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.97%chance
895
OptionVotes
165
61
Friends of the Earth’s Thailand chapter to campaign against Kok river pollution by end of 2025?
Jul 14, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.8%chance
348
OptionVotes
115
87
Will my friend Deepta have at least one child by the end of 2029?
Oct 19, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
51.92%chance
26
OptionVotes
104
96
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