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Top stories

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

Authors

54

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Friends

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

37.37%chance

162923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

772

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.85%chance

252166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2741

368

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.19%chance

101275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

440

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.81%chance

351265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

932

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar?

Dec 6, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me?

Apr 15, 6:07 PMDec 31, 7:06 PM

38.89%chance

4268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

798

My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 4th year, will be in academia in 2029.

Feb 12, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.64%chance

999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

162

Will {My Friend} Dive the HMHS Britannic before 2031?

Dec 13, 11:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Is 10 a friendly number?

Sep 17, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.45%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

76

Will "Relitigating the Race to Build Friendly AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 25, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Crime
Celebrities
Los Angeles
‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose
Authors
54
1 year ago

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