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Prediction markets for Ketamine
OptionProbability
10
5
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
2226
455
OptionProbability
12
11
10
8
7
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
How many grams of ketamine will Musk have consumed by the end of 2025?
Jun 1, 5:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
52185
OptionProbability
89
45
23
7
6
5
Will Elon Musk report experiencing psychological issues since taking Ketamine?
Jan 12, 11:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
23.39%chance
16797
OptionVotes
1438
816
OptionProbability
90
80
72
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
30
27
0
0
OptionProbability
73
66
62
61
52
51
34
In 2030, will more than 10 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ketamine in their lifetimes?
Feb 1, 6:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.84%chance
10154
OptionVotes
181
129
Contingent on moving to SF, what drug types will Gwern write publically about in the 12 months following his move?
Dec 20, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
377
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
41
36
36
36
Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?
Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
56.27%chance
666
OptionVotes
946
945
Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?
Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
56.48%chance
451
OptionVotes
114
88
Will there be evidence by 2030 that human selection on farmed mushrooms alters our gut microbiome?
May 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
36.27%chance
321
OptionVotes
108
76
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