Level News

Serve Robotics Buys Vayu Robotics; Wedbush Sees 46% Upside

7 months ago

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

YES

2969

2196

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.04%chance

7975784

OptionVotes

YES

24743

4041

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

25635779

OptionVotes

YES

2187

1991

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

79.96%chance

4726213

OptionVotes

YES

3876

2009

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.39%chance

12022705

OptionVotes

YES

3980

1375

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

74%chance

6610437

OptionVotes

YES

1688

593

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.48%chance

674020

OptionVotes

YES

1291

509

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153650

OptionProbability

More than 3

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

YES

1508

1036

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88%chance

202332

OptionVotes

YES

2600

239

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

YES

11500

8696

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Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
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Serve Robotics Buys Vayu Robotics; Wedbush Sees 46% Upside
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7 months ago

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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

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