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Prediction markets for Level
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.9%chance
613548563
OptionVotes
5386
853
Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.01%chance
8579364
OptionVotes
20640
4845
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
87%chance
27243470
OptionVotes
4674
1450
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM
81.18%chance
4726438
OptionVotes
4084
1959
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.88%chance
12723740
OptionVotes
3769
1429
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
165400
OptionProbability
62
25
6
5
3
OptionProbability
29
27
22
8
7
5
2
0
P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.48%chance
674020
OptionVotes
1291
509
In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?
Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM
62.17%chance
183427
OptionVotes
1282
780
Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?
Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
59.06%chance
673086
OptionVotes
1508
1036
Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?
Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.06%chance
82522
OptionVotes
12522
7986
Will the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?
Aug 7, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.27%chance
82028
OptionVotes
2040
910
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