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Prediction markets for Likeness
Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?
Aug 17, 11:50 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM
2%chance
52192987
OptionVotes
7000
143
OptionProbability
78
7
6
6
3
1
Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
28.13%chance
143124122
OptionVotes
14461
9183
OptionVotes
11829
8825
Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?
May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.03%chance
4914598
OptionVotes
2832
661
OptionProbability
83
82
66
60
50
50
50
23
0
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
55.37%chance
7012277
OptionVotes
1368
389
Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13.97%chance
5212270
OptionVotes
19342
7418
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
23.47%chance
177227
OptionVotes
2427
402
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM
31.82%chance
296204
OptionVotes
14631
6838
Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
84.94%chance
272955
OptionVotes
2248
1874
What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]
May 27, 7:03 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50