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Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.06%chance
2713596
OptionVotes
12765
7830
Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?
Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
15.51%chance
7111048
OptionVotes
2516
463
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29%chance
756080
OptionVotes
2300
2259
Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?
Nov 8, 7:08 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
8.69%chance
335164
OptionVotes
5658
1256
[ACX 2026] Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?
Jan 7, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.4%chance
184106
OptionVotes
6169
4916
Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2060?
Aug 7, 6:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
65.11%chance
322473
OptionVotes
1505
513
Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?
Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.88%chance
241370
OptionVotes
1779
1135
Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?
Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
22.25%chance
20778
OptionVotes
1154
940
Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?
Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM
27.09%chance
18573
OptionVotes
1005
984
OptionVotes
1267
789
Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?
May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
24.64%chance
15370
OptionVotes
1070
973
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.23%chance
16261
OptionVotes
994
994
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