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Prediction markets for Mass
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
36.49%chance
2513090
OptionVotes
13201
7571
Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?
Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
17.67%chance
7010838
OptionVotes
2326
500
Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.08%chance
188507
OptionVotes
6378
3288
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
27.7%chance
705955
OptionVotes
2407
2217
Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?
Nov 8, 7:08 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
8.08%chance
325010
OptionVotes
5984
1226
Will Kazakhstan experience mass mobilization, for any reasons, before end of 2026?
Jan 25, 9:30 AMDec 31, 9:28 AM
45.3%chance
211624
OptionVotes
1099
910
Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?
Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.5%chance
241211
OptionVotes
1938
1060
[ACX 2026] Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?
Jan 7, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.65%chance
12988
OptionVotes
5554
2895
Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?
Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
23.73%chance
19709
OptionVotes
1085
961
Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?
Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM
27.09%chance
18573
OptionVotes
1005
984
Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?
May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
24.64%chance
15370
OptionVotes
1070
973
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
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