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May News

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.96%chance

638902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

1042

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.33%chance

367280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2625

381

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?

Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

352813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2419

812

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.64%chance

392362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

567

GTA VI released on May 26, 2026?

May 2, 3:17 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

68.7%chance

222004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

675

During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term

Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

37.03%chance

181717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

767

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

27.54%chance

14379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

957

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

29.39%chance

22310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

941

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

34.15%chance

12130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

977

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