May News

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

7 months ago

Germany

War

Politics

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

7 months ago

Will Enho be on the banzuke in Juryo for the May 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Natsu basho)

Mar 8, 6:29 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

96.81%chance

2163943

OptionVotes

YES

29350

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Feb 28, 3:56 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.31%chance

2548862

OptionVotes

YES

54089

1849

Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?

Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

11.1%chance

9015110

OptionVotes

YES

3975

138

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

1859

958

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

YES

2593

386

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Feb 15, 8:02 PMMay 31, 7:49 PM

40%chance

186425

OptionVotes

YES

1456

324

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

YES

1871

534

Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 60 kt on May 31, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMMay 31, 9:06 PM

14.3%chance

11450

OptionVotes

YES

2450

334

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

1093

775

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

YES

1107

778

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Germany
War
Politics
NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies
Authors
12
7 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Mexico
Crime
Culture
Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests
Authors
17
7 months ago

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May News

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Prediction markets for May

Will Enho be on the banzuke in Juryo for the May 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Natsu basho)

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 60 kt on May 31, 2026?

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

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