May News

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

9 months ago

Germany

War

Politics

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

8 months ago

Total mana purchases in USD (Apr 8 - May 8)

Apr 10, 1:24 AMApr 10, 6:59 AM

1567656

OptionProbability

Above 500

Above 1,000

Above 2,000

Above 5,000

Above 10,000

Above 25,000

Above 50,000

100

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]

Apr 10, 4:26 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

32.45%chance

19052195

OptionVotes

YES

1317

805

Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?

Apr 30, 3:51 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

60.21%chance

619898

OptionVotes

YES

1230

813

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

639602

OptionVotes

YES

1885

953

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?

May 1, 6:50 PMMay 10, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

718237

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

YES

2593

386

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Feb 15, 8:02 PMMay 31, 7:49 PM

44.29%chance

266835

OptionVotes

YES

1394

369

How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Apr 25, 1:13 AMApr 25, 6:59 AM

85305

OptionProbability

Below $500,000

$500,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

$3,000,000 - $4,000,000

Above $4,000,000

Bitcoin $84K in May?

May 1, 7:37 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

71.23%chance

354958

OptionVotes

YES

1573

636

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

YES

1871

534

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Germany
War
Politics
NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies
Authors
12
8 months ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Mexico
Crime
Culture
Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests
Authors
17
9 months ago

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May News

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Prediction markets for May

Prediction markets for May

Prediction markets for May

Total mana purchases in USD (Apr 8 - May 8)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]

Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Bitcoin $84K in May?

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Latest stories

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