May News

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

1 year ago

Germany

War

Politics

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

1 year ago

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?

Sep 8, 11:12 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

5880646

OptionVotes

YES

3391

295

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.98%chance

659864

OptionVotes

YES

2135

912

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

88.26%chance

397502

OptionVotes

YES

2743

365

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.37%chance

544712

OptionVotes

YES

1904

525

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.12%chance

422538

OptionVotes

YES

1889

529

During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term

Feb 21, 7:58 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

38.67%chance

181762

OptionVotes

YES

1259

794

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]

Aug 31, 2:30 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

42.66%chance

121577

OptionVotes

YES

1159

863

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

24.54%chance

24710

OptionVotes

YES

1312

868

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

1093

775

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

YES

1107

778

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

56.04%chance

15495

OptionVotes

YES

1343

576

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Germany
War
Politics
NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies
Authors
12
1 year ago
Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Mexico
Crime
Culture
Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests
Authors
17
1 year ago

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All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

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