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Top stories

Memos Show IRS Opened, Then Halted 2019 Criminal Probe of Clinton Foundation

Memos Show IRS Opened, Then Halted 2019 Criminal Probe of Clinton Foundation

Authors

10

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Memos

Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?

Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.62%chance

224037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

935

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2025?

Apr 17, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

131572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2342

427

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?

Apr 17, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.44%chance

12907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

569

Second major LLM-chatbot integrates thread-memory by EoY 2025

Apr 27, 6:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.68%chance

9813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

552

Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2073?

Aug 19, 1:09 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

54.25%chance

13569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

911

Will Google issue an employee memo saying 'AI is no longer optional' for developers similar to Microsoft by EOY 2025?

Jul 3, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.2%chance

14459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

299

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.23%chance

9246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

When will we see credible evidence that Microsoft's memo about security tradeoffs was not applied?

May 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3114

OptionProbability

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-01-01

In 2026 or after

Before 2024-07-01

In 2030 or after, possibly never

75

70

69

54

48

46

Nelson Memo on public sharing of federally-funded research implemented by Dec 31, 2025?

Jul 2, 6:09 PMJan 1, 1:51 AM

60.14%chance

237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Latest stories

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Law
Politics
Business
Memos Show IRS Opened, Then Halted 2019 Criminal Probe of Clinton Foundation
Authors
10
4 days ago

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