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Prediction markets for Memos
Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?
Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.62%chance
224037
OptionVotes
1437
935
OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2025?
Apr 17, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.42%chance
131572
OptionVotes
2342
427
OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?
Apr 17, 10:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.44%chance
12907
OptionVotes
1758
569
Second major LLM-chatbot integrates thread-memory by EoY 2025
Apr 27, 6:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
76.68%chance
9813
OptionVotes
1813
552
OptionVotes
1045
911
Will Google issue an employee memo saying 'AI is no longer optional' for developers similar to Microsoft by EOY 2025?
Jul 3, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.2%chance
14459
OptionVotes
113
88
Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?
Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
26.71%chance
6390
OptionVotes
592
299
Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?
Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
72.11%chance
14372
OptionVotes
1003
984
Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?
Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.23%chance
9246
OptionVotes
1005
995
Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?
Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
46.95%chance
5123
OptionVotes
1063
941
When will we see credible evidence that Microsoft's memo about security tradeoffs was not applied?
May 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
3114
OptionProbability
75
70
69
54
48
46
Nelson Memo on public sharing of federally-funded research implemented by Dec 31, 2025?
Jul 2, 6:09 PMJan 1, 1:51 AM
60.14%chance
237
OptionVotes
123
81