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Top stories

Memos Show IRS Opened, Then Halted 2019 Criminal Probe of Clinton Foundation

Memos Show IRS Opened, Then Halted 2019 Criminal Probe of Clinton Foundation

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Memos

Will the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?

Sep 11, 5:08 PMNov 4, 6:00 PM

2.51%chance

3517614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6230

161

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?

Apr 17, 10:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.09%chance

225804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

It is possible to write standard C++ with memory safety guarantees similar to Rust by the end of

Sep 15, 6:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

185191

OptionProbability

2037

2033

2030

2027

18

13

9

1

Will we discover superconductivity in biological systems as key part of memory, perception or language, before 2040?

Aug 2, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.62%chance

224037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1437

935

Will the Crazy Horse Memorial be completed by 2073?

Aug 19, 1:09 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

54.25%chance

13569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

911

Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?

Jun 4, 6:55 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26.71%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

299

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Donald Trump claims he intends to write a memoir about second presidential term by the end of 2030?

Apr 4, 10:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.28%chance

9247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

994

Will Memorang be valued at $100M or more in a publicly verifiable way by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 3:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.95%chance

5123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

When will we see credible evidence that Microsoft's memo about security tradeoffs was not applied?

May 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3114

OptionProbability

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-01-01

In 2026 or after

Before 2024-07-01

In 2030 or after, possibly never

75

70

69

54

48

46

Which year will the US govt publically require memory safe languages be used for govt applications

Feb 27, 8:09 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

2030

Never

2035

Other

31

29

20

20

Latest stories

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Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Law
Politics
Business
Memos Show IRS Opened, Then Halted 2019 Criminal Probe of Clinton Foundation
Authors
10
1 year ago

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