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Prediction markets for Meta AI
Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?
Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
34.92%chance
816775
OptionVotes
1784
1088
Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.33%chance
226683
OptionVotes
13530
7320
Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?
Jan 31, 1:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
52.58%chance
345938
OptionVotes
1053
950
OptionProbability
32
23
21
8
8
5
3
0
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?
Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM
163510
OptionProbability
65
57
39
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
16.84%chance
312834
OptionVotes
1351
868
OptionProbability
22
21
20
15
13
7
3
Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.22%chance
14858
OptionVotes
1271
787
Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?
Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
96.5%chance
6435
OptionVotes
525
19
Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.09%chance
14135
OptionVotes
1178
1053
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%chance
3107
OptionVotes
1059
1041
Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?
Mar 12, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.54%chance
225
OptionVotes
165
120
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