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Prediction markets for On the Radar
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
57.61%chance
552029
OptionVotes
1261
970
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
39.1%chance
10950
OptionVotes
1248
801
Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
27%chance
16605
OptionVotes
1271
873
Will the US bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 3, 6:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
44.24%chance
9321
OptionVotes
264
224
Will Pakistan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 6, 8:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
70.47%chance
4116
OptionVotes
228
73
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Jul 1, 5:16 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
74.66%chance
472
OptionVotes
177
74
Will Japan bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 3, 6:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
72.94%chance
350
OptionVotes
140
61
Will Poland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:06 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
44.16%chance
430
OptionVotes
118
103
Will Russia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 6, 1:54 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
31.03%chance
326
OptionVotes
96
53
Will France bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 30, 8:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
45.25%chance
217
OptionVotes
55
45
Will India bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 3, 7:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
53.26%chance
216
OptionVotes
93
82
Will Russia bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 6, 1:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
53.86%chance
26
OptionVotes
74
66
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