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Prediction markets for On the Radar
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
52.77%chance
541909
OptionVotes
1141
1067
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
39.1%chance
10950
OptionVotes
1248
801
Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
28.11%chance
13479
OptionVotes
1226
890
Will Chile bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jul 2, 9:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
24.56%chance
4134
OptionVotes
161
82
Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Jun 30, 8:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
81.35%chance
494
OptionVotes
204
71
Will Ukraine bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Jul 1, 5:16 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
74.66%chance
472
OptionVotes
177
74
Will Sweden bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 30, 8:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
57%chance
371
OptionVotes
106
73
Will North Korea bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 6, 1:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
22.66%chance
460
OptionVotes
115
47
Will Poland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:06 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
44.16%chance
430
OptionVotes
118
103
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Jun 10, 12:19 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
59.76%chance
222
OptionVotes
81
61
Will China bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2027?
Jun 3, 6:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
35.55%chance
120
OptionVotes
86
58
Will Vietnam bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 5, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
38.3%chance
215
OptionVotes
85
58
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