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Prediction markets for On the Radar
Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
57.61%chance
552029
OptionVotes
1261
970
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
39.1%chance
10950
OptionVotes
1248
801
OptionVotes
234
43
China-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
Nov 23, 7:58 AMDec 15, 7:54 AM
12.17%chance
14558
OptionVotes
269
37
Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
28.11%chance
13479
OptionVotes
1226
890
Will France bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Jun 30, 8:47 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
81.35%chance
494
OptionVotes
204
71
Will North Korea bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
Jun 6, 1:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
22.66%chance
460
OptionVotes
115
47
Will the UAE bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jun 10, 12:27 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
76.42%chance
240
OptionVotes
90
28
Will South Africa bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Aug 3, 9:53 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
61.73%chance
439
OptionVotes
137
89
Will Poland bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
Jul 1, 5:06 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
44.16%chance
430
OptionVotes
118
103
Will Sweden bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Jun 30, 8:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
66.29%chance
227
OptionVotes
96
52
Will China bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2027?
Jun 3, 6:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
35.55%chance
120
OptionVotes
86
58
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