Optimism News

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

9 months ago

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

952

838

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

33.22%chance

343212

OptionVotes

YES

1502

581

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

1230

503

Will I be a drooling Virtual Reality zombie consuming garbage dopamine optimized content and porn by 2030?

Jul 25, 2:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.04%chance

271198

OptionVotes

YES

693

267

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

1114

947

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

Oct 29, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.53%chance

9278

OptionVotes

YES

263

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

67.91%chance

8146

OptionVotes

YES

145

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

1056

965

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.22%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 9, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1007

999

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Aug 24, 2025
Aug 24, 2025
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Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders
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Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Will I be a drooling Virtual Reality zombie consuming garbage dopamine optimized content and porn by 2030?

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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