Optimism News

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

5 months ago

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

952

838

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43%chance

342962

OptionVotes

YES

1252

734

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

1230

503

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM

96.28%chance

131135

OptionVotes

YES

509

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

1114

947

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

Oct 29, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.53%chance

9278

OptionVotes

YES

263

Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?

May 8, 9:38 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

78.2%chance

3151

OptionVotes

YES

189

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Apr 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.25%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

203

110

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

1056

965

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders
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Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

>2000 number theory will show up in optimization

Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram