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Prediction markets for Optimism
OptionProbability
109
103
Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?
May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
4.33%chance
224894
OptionVotes
4383
592
Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?
Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM
10.84%chance
193742
OptionVotes
1138
813
Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM
43.1%chance
322836
OptionVotes
1250
736
Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?
Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.98%chance
272170
OptionVotes
1037
955
By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
59.97%chance
282061
OptionVotes
1180
572
Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?
Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM
98.12%chance
10933
OptionVotes
722
14
Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?
Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.18%chance
24785
OptionVotes
1114
947
By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?
Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM
61.16%chance
8126
OptionVotes
125
80
Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.
Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
35.83%chance
12105
OptionVotes
1056
965
Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?
Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.11%chance
235
OptionVotes
89
56
Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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