Organic Law News
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Prediction markets for Organic Law
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
26.4%chance
784395091
OptionVotes
6391
3455
Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.98%chance
25979322
OptionVotes
9468
4190
OptionVotes
1106
905
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23%chance
241847
OptionVotes
1036
867
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
OptionVotes
1162
901
Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?
Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.3%chance
161101
OptionVotes
1036
955
Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
38%chance
151083
OptionVotes
1196
488
Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?
Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM
43.49%chance
7593
OptionVotes
1140
877
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will the President have federal police presence at polling places during the midterms?
Jul 7, 6:13 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
55.7%chance
11546
OptionVotes
1121
892
Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?
Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM
40.26%chance
5381
OptionVotes
1218
821