Organic Law News
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Prediction markets for Organic Law
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
32.38%chance
787397360
OptionVotes
5373
3877
Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.16%chance
26682672
OptionVotes
8636
4842
OptionVotes
1784
561
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23%chance
241847
OptionVotes
1036
867
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
OptionVotes
1101
951
Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?
Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.3%chance
161101
OptionVotes
1036
955
Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
38%chance
151083
OptionVotes
1196
488
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will the President have federal police presence at polling places during the midterms?
Jul 7, 6:13 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
55.15%chance
13560
OptionVotes
1109
902
Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?
Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.91%chance
7487
OptionVotes
1319
797
Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?
Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM
40.26%chance
5381
OptionVotes
1218
821