Organic Law News
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Prediction markets for Organic Law
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
25.96%chance
774387094
OptionVotes
6480
3424
Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.54%chance
9739221
OptionVotes
2045
1669
Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?
Aug 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10%chance
717058
OptionVotes
1709
871
OptionVotes
2995
334
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.22%chance
203337
OptionVotes
2681
373
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
Mar 10, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29%chance
221477
OptionVotes
1103
675
OptionVotes
1207
867
Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?
Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.3%chance
161101
OptionVotes
1036
955
Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
38%chance
151083
OptionVotes
1196
488
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?
Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM
45.84%chance
5540
OptionVotes
1087
920