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Prediction markets for Organic Law
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
34.48%chance
680288322
OptionVotes
5074
4023
Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?
Aug 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.09%chance
665575
OptionVotes
1008
874
Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?
May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM
52.58%chance
365551
OptionVotes
4800
4210
Antifa designated as foreign terror organization by US government before 2026?
Sep 24, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.13%chance
115226
OptionVotes
2368
422
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
12.22%chance
203337
OptionVotes
2681
373
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.31%chance
163092
OptionVotes
3237
737
Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?
Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.79%chance
141630
OptionVotes
1809
1260
Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?
Dec 24, 4:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
16.26%chance
231393
OptionVotes
1776
753
OptionVotes
1194
838
Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?
Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.3%chance
161101
OptionVotes
1036
955
Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?
Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
60.92%chance
11570
OptionVotes
1249
801
Will hax's mother file a lawsuit against one or more of the tournament organizers that banned him by the end of 2025?
Mar 28, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.43%chance
484
OptionVotes
132
76