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Top stories

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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Oscar

Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars)

Sep 20, 5:45 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

2626095

OptionProbability

The Odyssey

Wild Horse Nine

La Bola Negra

Dune: Part Three

Project Hail Mary

The Debut

The Invite

Fjord

Obsession

Club Kid

All of a Sudden

Behemoth

I Play Rocky

Digger

You Can See Everything

Primetime

Being Heumann

Elsinore

Possible Love

The Social Reckoning

Artificial

Michael

98

91

88

82

80

80

61

60

48

39

37

35

35

30

29

24

23

23

22

19

16

11

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

12.16%chance

10518506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2557

857

Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?

Apr 8, 3:23 PMJan 8, 4:20 PM

24.43%chance

292736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

Will "Michael" receive any Oscar nominations?

Apr 26, 4:14 PMJan 14, 5:13 PM

47.8%chance

221601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

744

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

81474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

418

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

28.63%chance

251287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

440

Oscars 2027: Will an actor or actress receive 2+ nominations in the same category?

May 18, 5:28 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

91266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

468

Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations?

Sep 21, 10:10 AMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

76.63%chance

5784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

949

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

14.2%chance

20602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

845

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.43%chance

16281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

920

Will the Oscars loosen rules on AI tool use by 2030?

Jun 11, 9:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

4129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

893

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