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Prediction markets for Oscars

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

17.78%chance

9917451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1864

977

Will a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?

Dec 26, 12:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.98%chance

382452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

618

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

291794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

Will Barack Obama be nominated for a Golden Globe or Oscar in the next three years [2024, 2025, and 2026]?

Dec 11, 4:19 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

271656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

444

Will a Oscar film released before December 10, 2025, depict Toronto as itself?

Jun 14, 6:48 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

19.3%chance

71045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

Will the Oscars have an award for stunt workers by 2030?

Feb 8, 8:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.14%chance

12926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1656

750

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

32.22%chance

6530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

689

Will a Bollywood or other Indian cinema movie win Best Picture at the Oscars / Academy Awards before the end of 2050?

Mar 25, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.49%chance

21506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

926

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

63.83%chance

23505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

940

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

17.96%chance

19302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

902

An Oscar winning movie features pickleball through 2025

Aug 22, 11:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.49%chance

14222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

936

Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?

Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.02%chance

15214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

928

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