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Prediction markets for Oscars
OptionProbability
98
91
88
82
80
80
61
60
48
39
37
35
35
30
29
24
23
23
22
19
16
11
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM
12.16%chance
10518506
OptionVotes
2557
857
Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?
Apr 8, 3:23 PMJan 8, 4:20 PM
24.43%chance
292736
OptionVotes
1759
569
Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)
Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM
54.73%chance
301932
OptionVotes
2090
1821
OptionVotes
1218
744
Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034
Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
14.85%chance
81474
OptionVotes
2394
418
Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)
Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM
28.63%chance
251287
OptionVotes
1686
440
Oscars 2027: Will an actor or actress receive 2+ nominations in the same category?
May 18, 5:28 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
17.99%chance
91266
OptionVotes
2135
468
Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations?
Sep 21, 10:10 AMFeb 15, 11:59 PM
76.63%chance
5784
OptionVotes
1151
949
By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction
Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM
14.2%chance
20602
OptionVotes
1556
845
Will someone with the name Rigoberto/Rigobert win an Oscar, Olympic Gold Medal, or a US Congress Election by EOY2028?
Feb 14, 2:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.43%chance
16281
OptionVotes
1227
920
OptionVotes
1120
893