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Prediction markets for Outbreak
Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?
May 14, 6:59 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM
9.22%chance
9011452
OptionVotes
2438
743
Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?
May 12, 4:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.34%chance
354365
OptionVotes
3787
767
Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
Jul 28, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.04%chance
103512
OptionVotes
3634
275
What will be log(deaths) from the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak by the end of 2027?
May 7, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
181988
OptionProbability
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
1517
82
By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak
Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37.48%chance
261276
OptionVotes
1225
800
Will another outbreak on par with covid-19 happen within the decade.
Dec 17, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.55%chance
28809
OptionVotes
1236
840
Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028?
Jul 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41.41%chance
30575
OptionVotes
1084
847
Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Jul 13, 4:18 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM
13361
OptionProbability
34
19
16
15
8
7
3
Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Oct 7, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
8.03%chance
6303
OptionVotes
339
30
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?
Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM
15.45%chance
392
OptionVotes
178
54
Will there be a major outbreak of avian flu before the end of 2027?
Jan 24, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39%chance
444
OptionVotes
125
80
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