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Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

5 months ago

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Microsoft Tests AI Semantic File Search in Windows 11 Copilot

6 months ago

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Adobe Unveils Acrobat Studio, $25-a-Month AI Workspace for PDFs

6 months ago

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4114777

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

Former US president

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

599478

OptionProbability

2030

2035+

2029

2028

2031

2032

2027

2033

2034

2026

2025

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

8.94%chance

132665

OptionVotes

YES

3192

313

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

9.59%chance

122638

OptionVotes

YES

1793

185

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

201408

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a week, less than a month

More than a month, less than a year

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

1264

791

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

1089

949

Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?

Nov 8, 6:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.71%chance

9262

OptionVotes

YES

237

204

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

Feb 12, 12:01 AMDec 16, 4:59 AM

55.55%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

1022

980

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Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

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How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?