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1 year ago

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Microsoft Tests AI Semantic File Search in Windows 11 Copilot

1 year ago

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Adobe Unveils Acrobat Studio, $25-a-Month AI Workspace for PDFs

1 year ago

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4417927

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Member of the press

State governor

Member of congress

Political rival

State supreme court judge

Former US president

Supreme court judge

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7710961

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2035+

2028

2031

2032

2027

2033

2034

2026

2025

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

5.4%chance

153657

OptionVotes

YES

4184

239

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

1056

947

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

211413

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a week, less than a month

More than a month, less than a year

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

1089

949

Will July 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?

Jun 14, 4:19 PMAug 18, 12:25 PM

7.46%chance

4266

OptionVotes

YES

352

Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?

Nov 8, 6:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.71%chance

9262

OptionVotes

YES

237

204

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will July 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 14, 6:13 AMAug 18, 1:10 PM

25.03%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

173

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

Feb 12, 12:01 AMDec 16, 4:59 AM

55.55%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

1022

980

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Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Will July 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?

Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Will July 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Latest stories

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