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Prediction markets for PDF
OptionProbability
24
21
13
11
10
8
5
3
3
2
0
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
4418027
OptionProbability
38
23
22
21
11
10
9
7
7
6
When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?
Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
275480
OptionProbability
31
26
15
15
8
4
1
Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?
Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM
5.4%chance
153657
OptionVotes
4184
239
In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?
Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
86.39%chance
51821
OptionVotes
2522
397
[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?
Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
47.26%chance
101490
OptionVotes
1056
947
How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?
Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM
211413
OptionProbability
36
24
19
14
3
3
Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?
Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM
23.04%chance
12329
OptionVotes
1089
949
OptionVotes
237
204
[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks
Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7116
OptionProbability
83
76
57
51
12
Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026
Feb 12, 12:01 AMDec 16, 4:59 AM
55.55%chance
480
OptionVotes
95
76
How will GiveWell's 2027 *Program* salary expenses compare to 2022's?
Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM
230
OptionProbability
21
20
12
12
12
12
11
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