Performance News

Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990

10 months ago

Software

Video Games

Tech

Nvidia Upgrades GeForce Now With RTX 5080 GPUs for 5K Cloud Gaming

10 months ago

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8728182

OptionVotes

YES

1687

593

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

3665

1447

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.58%chance

368692

OptionVotes

YES

9591

1588

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

87%chance

258469

OptionVotes

YES

2561

393

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.43%chance

826082

OptionVotes

YES

1499

811

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

351585

OptionVotes

YES

1039

972

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

YES

1276

435

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.84%chance

11975

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

YES

1120

938

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

YES

1351

1158

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Europe
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Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990
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10 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Software
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Nvidia Upgrades GeForce Now With RTX 5080 GPUs for 5K Cloud Gaming
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10 months ago

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Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Latest stories

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