Performance News

Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990

1 year ago

Software

Video Games

Tech

Nvidia Upgrades GeForce Now With RTX 5080 GPUs for 5K Cloud Gaming

1 year ago

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5.41%chance

11424490

OptionVotes

YES

6015

1265

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.58%chance

368692

OptionVotes

YES

9591

1588

Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole

Sep 24, 3:53 AMMay 2, 6:59 AM

137196

OptionProbability

0.50 - 0.79x

1 - 1.49x

.8- .99x

0.2- 0.49x

1.5 - 1.99x

2.0x - 4.99x

above 10x

Below 0.2x

5.0x - 9.99x

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.43%chance

826082

OptionVotes

YES

1499

811

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

152439

OptionVotes

YES

2657

111

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

YES

2851

560

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

351585

OptionVotes

YES

1039

972

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

YES

1276

435

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.84%chance

11975

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

YES

1118

699

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Aug 16, 2:33 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

66.81%chance

10756

OptionVotes

YES

1419

705

Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?

Aug 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.42%chance

10470

OptionVotes

YES

1346

743

Latest stories

Aug 29, 2025
Aug 29, 2025
Europe
Automobile
Business
Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990
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12
1 year ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Software
Video Games
Tech
Nvidia Upgrades GeForce Now With RTX 5080 GPUs for 5K Cloud Gaming
Authors
13
1 year ago

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Prediction markets for Performance

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By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Given an uptick in IVF, how will Progyny ($PGNY) perform relative to Nasdaq as a whole

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?

Latest stories

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