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Top stories

2K Launches $50 ‘Mafia: The Old Country’ With Mixed Early Reviews

2K Launches $50 ‘Mafia: The Old Country’ With Mixed Early Reviews

Authors

13

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Performance

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.24%chance

240238881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5413

4683

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Jan 8, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

96101486

OptionProbability

65 - 100%

50 - 65%

0% - 35%

40 - 45%

35 - 40%

45 - 50%

19

18

17

17

16

13

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

Jan 23, 2:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7876019

OptionProbability

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

30-40%

70-80%

20-30%

80-90%

90-100%

0-10%

10-20%

22

22

16

13

10

6

5

4

1

1

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4850284

OptionProbability

85% - 90%

75% - 85%

90% - 100%

70% - 75%

53% - 60%

60% - 70%

45

38

11

3

1

1

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2450213

OptionProbability

50% - 60%

40% - 50%

80% - 90%

60% - 70%

70% - 80%

90% - 100%

24.5% - 40%

31

27

17

10

8

6

1

Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.54%chance

3845382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27689

3612

Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.36%chance

13239157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1668

485

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45%chance

8336929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.18%chance

11121915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3515

1464

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85%chance

8420690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2380

420

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.08%chance

348649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10538

1545

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.4%chance

493670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

838

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 7, 2025
Aug 7, 2025
Video Games
Culture
2K Launches $50 ‘Mafia: The Old Country’ With Mixed Early Reviews
Authors
13
1 day ago

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