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Prediction markets for Performance
By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do
Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
7.15%chance
11423240
OptionVotes
4765
1348
OptionVotes
9591
1588
Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?
Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
79.43%chance
826082
OptionVotes
1499
811
Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029
Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
83.96%chance
41621
OptionVotes
2851
560
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM
30.45%chance
351585
OptionVotes
1039
972
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.58%chance
211069
OptionVotes
1276
435
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.84%chance
11975
OptionVotes
1430
699
Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?
Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
35.54%chance
17971
OptionVotes
1118
699
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
78%chance
16943
OptionVotes
1382
859
Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?
Aug 16, 2:33 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
68.85%chance
8714
OptionVotes
1487
673
Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?
Aug 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.42%chance
10470
OptionVotes
1346
743
Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?
Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.64%chance
13320
OptionVotes
1120
938
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