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Apple Set to Ship AirPods Pro 3 With Heart-Rate Sensor in September
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16 hours ago
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Will Australia remove the ban on nuclear power by 2028 ?
Feb 22, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
9.02%chance
335743
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2643
621
Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?
Feb 14, 7:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.17%chance
484486
OptionVotes
1102
816
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM
73.18%chance
413662
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1181
828
OptionVotes
1030
969
OptionVotes
1055
804
Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?
Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.08%chance
251348
OptionVotes
1211
900
Will Hamas still be in power in Gaza on Cinco de Mayo 2026?
May 5, 3:32 AMMay 7, 12:00 AM
27.64%chance
13341
OptionVotes
162
62
Will NASA's Dragonfly rotorcraft make at least one powered flight on Titan?
Sep 17, 2:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.72%chance
10278
OptionVotes
1142
955
War-Powers Notice on Iran Before 31 Dec 2025? (“Declaration of War”)
Jun 18, 2:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
22.15%chance
2275
OptionVotes
188
53
Conditional on CCP losing power, will China's GDP-PPP per capita catch up with EU by 2050?
May 9, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
51.12%chance
7176
OptionVotes
206
191
What will be the speed record for solar powered aircraft on Earth in 2100?
Aug 3, 11:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
185
OptionProbability
31
28
23
13
5
Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?
Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM
64.73%chance
572
OptionVotes
135
74
Latest stories
Latest stories
- Apple Set to Ship AirPods Pro 3 With Heart-Rate Sensor in SeptemberAuthors1116 hours ago