Robin News

TT Games Reveals Lego Batman: Legacy of the Dark Knight for 2026

7 months ago

Robin Stock

May 2, 6:21 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

477187

OptionProbability

YES

1705

637

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

YES

1907

524

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

YES

3780

1858

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

16.5%chance

163804

OptionVotes

YES

2249

445

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.41%chance

83311

OptionVotes

YES

2933

341

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.02%chance

143293

OptionVotes

YES

1938

516

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.32%chance

343263

OptionVotes

YES

1102

779

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

40%chance

241197

OptionVotes

YES

1068

947

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

998

932

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

YES

1233

811

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Aug 11, 1:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6269

OptionProbability

As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100

The news originated in a for-profit company

It's an achieved breakthrough in em tech/science

Hanson first heard it July or August 2024

It's about ems being easy

It's about AGI being hard

Hanson made it up

Assuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?

Jan 4, 7:43 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM

12213

OptionProbability

Prediction markets

Extra-terrestrial civilizations (Grabby aliens, Great Filter...)

Signalling

Ems

Criminal law vouching

Tax Career Agents

Healthcare

Reversible agents

Other

Fertility

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Video Games
Culture
TT Games Reveals Lego Batman: Legacy of the Dark Knight for 2026
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7 months ago

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Robin Stock

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Assuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?

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