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Prediction markets for Robin
OptionProbability
1705
637
If Krantz goes on a proper date with Robin Hanson, they will win a Nobel Prize in Economics.
Mar 15, 12:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.2%chance
86295
OptionVotes
1500
847
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
80.58%chance
255060
OptionVotes
1605
784
Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
95.55%chance
484763
OptionVotes
3780
1858
OptionVotes
3597
775
OptionVotes
4169
240
OptionVotes
2304
434
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.07%chance
332946
OptionVotes
1019
922
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2025?
Feb 5, 12:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.33%chance
101601
OptionVotes
1813
552
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.97%chance
24571
OptionVotes
1022
851
Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?
Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM
38.25%chance
21557
OptionVotes
1113
918
Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?
May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.33%chance
5363
OptionVotes
1233
811
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