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Prediction markets for Robin
OptionVotes
2186
457
OptionProbability
1705
637
Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM
77.79%chance
255750
OptionVotes
1872
534
OptionVotes
2434
411
Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
95.55%chance
484763
OptionVotes
3780
1858
OptionVotes
4040
248
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.32%chance
343263
OptionVotes
1102
779
Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?
Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM
40%chance
241197
OptionVotes
1068
947
Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Apr 22, 5:30 PMApr 22, 5:28 PM
4.62%chance
131007
OptionVotes
454
22
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
78%chance
25652
OptionVotes
998
932
Will Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics?
Jun 16, 12:26 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM
12.45%chance
13609
OptionVotes
265
38
Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?
May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.09%chance
5532
OptionVotes
1064
940
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