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Prediction markets for Sorry
OptionVotes
118578
1777
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
3.01%chance
5512423
OptionVotes
8856
317
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
Apr 21, 6:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
66.58%chance
15711472
OptionVotes
2299
1843
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1.03%chance
4010690
OptionVotes
9794
102
OptionVotes
1117
894
OptionVotes
1152
744
Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?
May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
25.33%chance
422300
OptionVotes
983
970
OptionProbability
100
91
88
73
64
50
48
47
45
43
40
10
0
Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?
Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM
36.06%chance
81166
OptionVotes
3996
2252
OptionProbability
53
34
6
3
1
1
1
Will Donald Trump mention the Deltarune References that the Department of War has made?
Aug 20, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.06%chance
6243
OptionVotes
270
37
Will "The Sorry State of AI X-Risk Advocacy, and Th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 23, 3:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.29%chance
253
OptionVotes
124
97
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