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Prediction markets for Sorry
OptionVotes
23634
5267
OptionProbability
70
29
1
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
Apr 21, 6:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
74.24%chance
15710943
OptionVotes
2886
1599
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.46%chance
507971
OptionVotes
5317
494
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
2.99%chance
376383
OptionVotes
5698
175
OptionVotes
996
983
Which films will be nominated for an Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards (2026)?
Jan 24, 2:48 AMMar 15, 2:59 AM
181879
OptionProbability
99
99
98
93
92
90
90
89
88
86
85
85
81
80
79
79
77
76
74
73
72
69
66
66
62
59
56
54
52
50
50
50
50
45
44
40
39
37
34
34
34
32
29
24
24
24
24
24
21
19
17
17
15
6
Will Xi Jinping remain leader of China for the rest of his life?
May 20, 9:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
31.82%chance
391866
OptionVotes
1065
764
Will "Sorry for the downtime, looks like we got DDosd" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Dec 3, 8:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
1.11%chance
3900
OptionVotes
1000
69
OptionProbability
44
40
7
4
2
2
2
Will "The Sorry State of AI X-Risk Advocacy, and Th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 23, 3:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.29%chance
253
OptionVotes
124
97
Will "On saying "Thank you" instead of "I'm Sorry"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 11, 3:13 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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