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Prediction markets for Sovereign

Will Somaliland be an internationally-recognized sovereign state before 2040?

May 28, 8:00 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

78.41%chance

246226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1706

693

Will the US have a sovereign wealth fund by 2026?

Sep 7, 3:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.08%chance

446057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1995

501

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

92756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4114

2467

Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress?

Nov 21, 6:49 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.76%chance

122331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

155

Will any OECD country undergo a sovereign debt crisis by end of 2025?

Sep 29, 1:08 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.32%chance

142264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

876

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

Aug 15, 7:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.85%chance

312192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1821

840

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.1%chance

8909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

What sovereign state will the West Bank first be part of?

Oct 20, 7:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15902

OptionProbability

Palestine

Israel

Jordan

Other

40

29

22

8

Will any state claim part of the Moon's surface as its sovereign territory before 2040?

Dec 11, 8:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.96%chance

20689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

879

Will the US sovereign wealth fund invest in Blackstone or TPG by 2028?

Feb 3, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.46%chance

5482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

790

What sovereign state will Gaza first be part of?

Oct 20, 7:10 PMOct 29, 11:27 PM

15437

OptionProbability

Israel

Palestine

Gaza

Other

Egypt

39

37

10

8

6

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

May 18, 9:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.73%chance

4126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

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