Supervised News

Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise

7 months ago

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

22828707

OptionProbability

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Israel

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Territorial rule by tribal clans

Turkey

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

YES

1098

735

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Dec 15, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42185

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

After 2027-01-01

Before Sep 2026

Before July 2026

Before May 2026

Before Mar 2026

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.88%chance

452163

OptionVotes

YES

1137

885

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

YES

1124

534

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

1470

680

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

1208

932

Winner of San Francisco D2 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

Mar 21, 6:50 PMJun 2, 11:59 PM

170

OptionProbability

Lori Brooke

Stephen Sherrill

Jeremy Kirshner

Other

Winner of San Francisco D4 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

Mar 21, 6:52 PMJun 2, 11:59 PM

162

OptionProbability

Natalie Gee

David Lee

Alan Wong

Albert Chow

Jeremy Greco

Other

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Sep 14, 11:57 AM

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Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise
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After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Winner of San Francisco D2 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

Winner of San Francisco D4 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Latest stories

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