Supervised News

Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise

4 months ago

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

22427674

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8315269

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

213760

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

92575

OptionVotes

YES

2598

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.95%chance

452138

OptionVotes

YES

1105

898

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.8%chance

232005

OptionVotes

YES

1165

633

Johnny Somali actually serves 30+ days sentence in a South Korean Jail/prison/physical confinement, through mid 2027

Mar 7, 6:13 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

80.09%chance

51448

OptionVotes

YES

2006

499

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

YES

1124

534

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

1208

932

Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite?

Apr 5, 2:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5152

OptionProbability

WEAK-TO-STRONG GENERALIZATION: ELICITING STRONG CAPABILITIES WITH WEAK SUPERVISION

Textbooks Are All You Need

Graph of Thoughts: Solving Elaborate Problems with Large Language Models

ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models

PaLM 2 Technical Report

Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models

Mathematical discoveries from program search with large language models

GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants

Mixture-of-Depths: Dynamically allocating compute in transformer-based language models

At the end of 2025 will a DINO-based algorithm still be SOTA for self-supervised learning in vision?

Feb 13, 5:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.31%chance

341

OptionVotes

YES

106

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Sep 14, 11:57 AM

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After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

Johnny Somali actually serves 30+ days sentence in a South Korean Jail/prison/physical confinement, through mid 2027

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite?

At the end of 2025 will a DINO-based algorithm still be SOTA for self-supervised learning in vision?

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Latest stories

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