Supervised News

Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise

10 months ago

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.68%chance

24770128

OptionVotes

YES

1877

733

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23029098

OptionProbability

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Israel

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

SF Supervisor D8 Election Winner

Apr 29, 9:15 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

721776

OptionProbability

Yekutiel, Manny

McCoy, Gary

Nguyen, Michael

Other

Patel, Darshini

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415305

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

2380

283

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Dec 15, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42585

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

After 2027-01-01

Before Sep 2026

Before July 2026

Before May 2026

Before Mar 2026

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

YES

1098

735

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.88%chance

452163

OptionVotes

YES

1137

885

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

1689

592

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

YES

1144

495

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

1208

932

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Sep 14, 11:57 AM

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Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise
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Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

SF Supervisor D8 Election Winner

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

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