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Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise

9 months ago

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

12.59%chance

24569450

OptionVotes

YES

2232

675

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23029047

OptionProbability

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Israel

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

SF Supervisor D8 Election Winner

Apr 29, 9:15 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

316476

OptionProbability

Yekutiel, Manny

McCoy, Gary

Nguyen, Michael

Other

Patel, Darshini

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

Dec 15, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42585

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Nov 2026

After 2027-01-01

Before Sep 2026

Before July 2026

Before May 2026

Before Mar 2026

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

YES

1098

735

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

YES

1144

495

who will win Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors election, District 2 on June 2nd 2026

Apr 21, 10:37 PMJun 3, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Elijah Mack

Laura Capps

other

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

1208

932

Winner of San Francisco D2 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

Mar 21, 6:50 PMJun 2, 11:59 PM

2387

OptionProbability

Stephen Sherrill

Lori Brooke

Other

Jeremy Kirshner

Winner of San Francisco D4 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

Mar 21, 6:52 PMJun 2, 11:59 PM

1204

OptionProbability

Natalie Gee

David Lee

Alan Wong

Albert Chow

Jeremy Greco

Other

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

Sep 14, 11:57 AM

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Tesla Launches Model 3 Long Range RWD in China With 830 km Range, Deliveries Start September, US Model S/X Prices Rise
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Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

SF Supervisor D8 Election Winner

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

When will Tesla FSD (supervised) be widely available in the EU?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

who will win Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors election, District 2 on June 2nd 2026

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Winner of San Francisco D2 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

Winner of San Francisco D4 Supervisor June 2, 2026 election

will andres gomez emilsson (the QUALIA MAN) help supervise an assisted suicide?

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