Supervised News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Supervised
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
22828707
OptionProbability
29
28
24
8
5
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
44
35
21
1
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
14.47%chance
223780
OptionVotes
2380
283
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
36.84%chance
242303
OptionVotes
1098
735
OptionProbability
55
50
46
42
31
29
0
Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?
Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.88%chance
452163
OptionVotes
1137
885
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.83%chance
22864
OptionVotes
1124
534
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.64%chance
10746
OptionVotes
1470
680
Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?
Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
14.93%chance
15513
OptionVotes
1208
932
OptionProbability
46
27
20
8
OptionProbability
29
25
14
12
10
10
Latest stories
Latest stories