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Prediction markets for Taiwanese
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
Jan 14, 6:43 PMJan 1, 1:44 AM
4.04%chance
3110693
OptionVotes
4875
205
Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Sep 4, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
41.08%chance
13652
OptionVotes
613
517
Will the Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius close or change its name before 2026?
Jan 28, 3:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM
8.38%chance
6459
OptionVotes
357
30
Will the Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius change its name in the following year?
Jan 28, 3:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM
2315
OptionProbability
25
12
12
12
12
12
12
1
Will China go to war with Taiwan before the DPP loses the Taiwanese presidency
Mar 29, 11:18 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM
39.47%chance
8212
OptionVotes
221
212
Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?
Sep 11, 1:10 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35%chance
8210
OptionVotes
105
104
Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028
Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
29.23%chance
5132
OptionVotes
134
94
At least 2m Taiwanese citizens are physically relocated to the mainland by the PRC through 2033
Sep 4, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
14.23%chance
4120
OptionVotes
250
89
Will a Taiwanese armed forces pilot defect to China with their aircraft before 2030?
Dec 12, 2:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
23.65%chance
572
OptionVotes
195
98
Will Trump or Rubio say that the US opposes Taiwanese independence before 2027?
Sep 28, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.44%chance
464
OptionVotes
151
66
Will a new Taiwanese Representative Office in Estonia use the word 'Taiwan' in the name?
Nov 6, 8:54 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
42.21%chance
233
OptionVotes
59
43
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
Apr 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 5:01 AM
49.01%chance
11
OptionVotes
71
69
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