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Prediction markets for Taiwanese
Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
Jan 14, 6:43 PMJan 1, 1:44 AM
11.19%chance
308251
OptionVotes
2817
355
Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?
Sep 18, 8:27 AMOct 8, 6:59 AM
5.72%chance
233679
OptionVotes
4058
246
Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Sep 4, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.35%chance
12645
OptionVotes
623
510
Will the Taiwanese Representative Office in Vilnius close or change its name before 2026?
Jan 28, 3:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM
15.29%chance
6239
OptionVotes
257
43
Will China go to war with Taiwan before the DPP loses the Taiwanese presidency
Mar 29, 11:18 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM
39.47%chance
8212
OptionVotes
221
212
Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?
Sep 11, 1:10 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35%chance
8210
OptionVotes
105
104
Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028
Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
29.23%chance
5132
OptionVotes
134
94
Will Charles III of the UK et al meet a senior Taiwanese leader before the end of his reign?
Aug 17, 10:00 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
44.11%chance
5127
OptionVotes
135
117
At least 2m Taiwanese citizens are physically relocated to the mainland by the PRC through 2033
Sep 4, 9:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
14.23%chance
4120
OptionVotes
250
89
Will a Taiwanese armed forces pilot defect to China with their aircraft before 2030?
Dec 12, 2:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
23.65%chance
572
OptionVotes
195
98
Will the Third Nuclear Power Plant continue operating following the Taiwanese referendum on 23 August 2025?
Jun 10, 4:07 PMAug 24, 4:06 PM
62.83%chance
230
OptionVotes
130
77
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) → Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
Apr 28, 7:21 PMJan 2, 5:01 AM
49.01%chance
11
OptionVotes
71
69
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