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Prediction markets for TechCrunch
Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?
Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
32.53%chance
467945
OptionVotes
1119
373
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?
Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17.75%chance
171965
OptionVotes
2152
465
OptionVotes
153
65
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
11.4%chance
181414
OptionVotes
1241
941
Will a neurotech company face a lawsuit over unauthorized brain data collection in 2025?
Mar 8, 11:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.98%chance
91411
OptionVotes
2293
436
OptionVotes
1445
884
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
5433
OptionProbability
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?
Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM
34.87%chance
6425
OptionVotes
1367
732
OptionProbability
75
41
28
15
3
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
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