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Prediction markets for TechCrunch
Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?
Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
29.8%chance
7115986
OptionVotes
1099
416
Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.89%chance
184256
OptionVotes
3019
331
Manifold markets next valuation > $20m if announced by EOY 2026?
Jan 6, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.01%chance
112332
OptionVotes
1107
905
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
17.16%chance
221493
OptionVotes
1009
826
Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?
Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
43.73%chance
141119
OptionVotes
1196
659
OptionVotes
1460
882
Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 7:34 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
36.12%chance
11684
OptionVotes
1330
752
OptionProbability
88
50
41
34
21
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
May 26, 10:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
5433
OptionProbability
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Will Meta provide the content of a WhatsApp message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
Jan 8, 2:50 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.57%chance
4317
OptionVotes
1141
876
OptionVotes
159
63
1X NEO humanoid robot ships to first consumer homes by June 30, 2026
Nov 25, 1:50 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM
21.53%chance
3110
OptionVotes
191
52
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