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Top stories

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India

Authors

13

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Top Ten

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will epigenetic reprogramming-related pathways rank among the top ten pathways that improve neural graft survival?

Nov 24, 5:06 AMMar 24, 4:05 AM

79.8%chance

111395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1987

503

Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

1.59%chance

3807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

729

72

Will Bodhana Sivanandan be rated in the world chess top ten according to FIDE by end of 2034?

Dec 24, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.8%chance

5723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

669

143

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

49.88%chance

21647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

929

By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?

Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.63%chance

14509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

866

On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?

Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

30.45%chance

14494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

892

Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?

Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

16386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

194

How many Ohio State players will be drafted in the Top Ten of the NFL Draft?

Mar 5, 2:59 AMApr 23, 11:59 PM

2173

OptionProbability

Four or more

Three

Two

One or fewer

48

38

9

6

Will Canada be top ten in IMO 2026?

Sep 1, 9:55 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

32%chance

13142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will "Ten people on the inside" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
India
Crime
Texas
FBI Captures ‘Top Ten’ Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh in India
Authors
13
7 months ago

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