Top Ten News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Top Ten
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
64%chance
351950
OptionVotes
999
911
OptionProbability
99
66
56
15
2
2
Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
1.44%chance
2806
OptionVotes
794
71
Will Bodhana Sivanandan be rated in the world chess top ten according to FIDE by end of 2034?
Dec 24, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.8%chance
5723
OptionVotes
669
143
Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?
Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM
52.46%chance
20597
OptionVotes
1005
982
By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?
Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
81.63%chance
14509
OptionVotes
1327
866
On Android, does Kindle have the guts to ship automatic voice accompaniment?
Dec 15, 10:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
30.45%chance
14494
OptionVotes
1204
892
Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?
Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.16%chance
15376
OptionVotes
207
184
Will Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Oct 8, 10:13 PMOct 16, 6:59 AM
16.98%chance
5366
OptionVotes
221
45
Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29
Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
56%chance
3128
OptionVotes
1128
886
Will "Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 15, 4:51 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
10
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "Ten people on the inside" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 28, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100