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Prediction markets for Top Ten
Which teams from La Liga will be relegated to La Liga 2? (2026-2027)
Sep 13, 9:35 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM
1324496
OptionProbability
72
31
31
28
27
24
22
20
15
12
12
10
7
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?
Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
193152
OptionProbability
72
48
40
38
34
32
27
25
24
20
19
16
15
12
9
8
8
5
5
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.94%chance
372146
OptionVotes
1014
884
Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
1.59%chance
3807
OptionVotes
729
72
Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?
Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM
51.35%chance
24730
OptionVotes
1026
959
Will Bodhana Sivanandan be rated in the world chess top ten according to FIDE by end of 2034?
Dec 24, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.8%chance
5723
OptionVotes
669
143
By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?
Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
80.12%chance
18591
OptionVotes
1234
888
Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?
Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.8%chance
21539
OptionVotes
205
187
Will a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027?
Aug 5, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.5%chance
15441
OptionVotes
384
128
Will the 2026-2027 NBA Champion have the best record in the NBA?
Jul 1, 11:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
26.66%chance
12259
OptionVotes
166
60
Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29
Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
56%chance
3128
OptionVotes
1128
886
Will "Ten people on the inside" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 28, 10:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100