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Prediction markets for Vids
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
84%chance
177111717
OptionVotes
2077
166
Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?
Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM
93.18%chance
8926048
OptionVotes
9311
4632
How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1119711
OptionProbability
91
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
54
52
44
35
17
0
When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?
May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
1518931
OptionProbability
25
20
18
16
16
4
1
By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?
Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
71.53%chance
5015948
OptionVotes
1682
474
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.51%chance
626005
OptionVotes
2198
167
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.74%chance
965688
OptionProbability
1903
1563
OptionVotes
3891
257
Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?
Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM
10.79%chance
52234
OptionVotes
2703
107
When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?
May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM
111499
OptionProbability
33
28
21
11
6
1
Convincing video of Jose Luis ricon playing main role in boulevard of broken dreams YT vid by 2030
Apr 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.67%chance
220
OptionVotes
160
123
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