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Prediction markets for Vids
Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?
Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.85%chance
20759981
OptionVotes
1127
926
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
41.43%chance
12857876
OptionVotes
1148
682
When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?
May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
1418767
OptionProbability
25
20
19
16
16
4
1
OptionProbability
51
49
41
36
26
0
Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?
Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM
90%chance
7917628
OptionVotes
6472
4887
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?
Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM
48%chance
406304
OptionVotes
1090
893
SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.
Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.81%chance
335935
OptionVotes
4447
225
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.18%chance
955673
OptionProbability
1920
1549
OptionProbability
47
20
11
8
7
7
When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?
May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM
111499
OptionProbability
33
28
21
11
6
1
OptionVotes
1342
745
Convincing video of Jose Luis ricon playing main role in boulevard of broken dreams YT vid by 2030
Apr 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.67%chance
220
OptionVotes
160
123
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