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Prediction markets for Vids
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
60%chance
16495593
OptionVotes
1434
402
Will I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?
Jan 6, 7:00 AMJan 6, 9:59 PM
93.5%chance
8822915
OptionVotes
9736
4602
OptionProbability
54
52
44
35
17
0
When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?
May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
1518931
OptionProbability
25
20
18
16
16
4
1
By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?
Oct 2, 1:12 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
71.53%chance
5015948
OptionVotes
1682
474
How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1112369
OptionProbability
80
9
3
3
3
3
SOAI#5: A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.
Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.26%chance
346935
OptionVotes
5447
184
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.74%chance
965688
OptionProbability
1903
1563
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
33.43%chance
575230
OptionVotes
1571
354
OptionVotes
2641
379
When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?
May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM
111499
OptionProbability
33
28
21
11
6
1
Convincing video of Jose Luis ricon playing main role in boulevard of broken dreams YT vid by 2030
Apr 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.67%chance
220
OptionVotes
160
123
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