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Prediction markets for Vids
Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?
Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM
36.12%chance
15173304
OptionVotes
2118
667
Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?
Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45.68%chance
19755880
OptionVotes
1291
764
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
45%chance
11847699
OptionVotes
1198
615
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?
Dec 26, 4:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.1%chance
16927440
OptionVotes
2861
428
OptionProbability
53
48
43
41
34
18
When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?
May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
1011851
OptionProbability
20
20
17
15
13
13
1
OptionProbability
33
25
25
17
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
55.98%chance
955648
OptionProbability
1951
1524
When will we get the first successful video game that uses vid gen instead of a traditional engine?
May 25, 6:17 PMMay 26, 6:16 PM
8821
OptionVotes
1188
842
Convincing deep fake of Jose Luis ricon playing main role in boulevard of broken dreams YT vid by 2030
Apr 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.67%chance
220
OptionVotes
160
123
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