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WhatsApp News

    Prediction markets for WhatsApp

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1456

    324

    Which major product will META kill first?

    Mar 20, 4:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    293066

    OptionProbability

    Threads

    WhatsApp

    Messenger

    Facebook

    Instagram

    84

    9

    3

    2

    2

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1909

    392

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2075

    489

    OptionProbability

    Wikipedia

    Amazon

    Youtube

    Baidu

    Microsoft.com

    Microsoft365

    Microsoft Office

    Google

    Whatsapp

    Linkedin

    Pornhub

    Reddit

    Samsung Electronics

    Weather Channel

    Instagram

    Netflix

    Pinterest

    Facebook

    Microsoft Outlook

    Discord

    Telegram

    Twitch

    Microsoft Bing

    DuckDuckGo

    Tiktok

    OpenAI

    eBay

    Twitter

    Yahoo

    Zoom

    Roblox

    Xvideos

    Yahoo Japan

    Zen News

    xHamster

    Naver

    Bilibili

    Turbo pages

    Max

    xHamster.desi

    QQ

    Globo

    XNXX

    Docomo

    Yandex Search

    VK

    Fandom

    Sharepoint

    Mail.ru

    Quora

    94

    88

    86

    85

    78

    73

    73

    71

    69

    67

    63

    62

    62

    60

    55

    54

    54

    50

    48

    48

    48

    46

    44

    44

    43

    41

    41

    39

    38

    37

    36

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    29

    29

    27

    27

    27

    27

    15

    9

    What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

    Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    121409

    OptionProbability

    Mass AI-driven job displacement event

    A government declaration/statement (any country)

    Reports about software

    Reports about financial activity

    Report about sociological observations

    Report about economic observations

    AI-related academic achievement

    Attack on military target

    Attack on civilian target

    AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

    A statement from an individual (human)

    AI-related fake news

    AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

    A private company declaration/statement (any company)

    Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

    Military activity / posture change

    An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

    AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

    An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

    A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

    AI-designed cyberweapon

    AI makes prediction about future event

    Open source model release

    Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

    Reports of aerial devices/machines

    Reports of market activity

    AI-related corruption scandal

    AI-related theft

    A new war between nation states

    AI-related resignation

    Reports of activity in online communities

    Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

    Reports of activity in open source software

    A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

    Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

    People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

    AI-related diplomacy

    Reports about consumer activity

    Reports about identity theft

    Reports of activity in religious communities

    AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

    Reports about industrial activity

    Reports about physical machines

    Reports about criminal activity

    AI-related competition achievement

    A viral meme

    An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

    AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

    AI-related cyberattack

    Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

    A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

    AI-related sex scandal

    A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

    AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

    Attack on Taiwan

    AI-related terrorist attack

    AI-related assassination

    AI-designed pathogen

    AI drug discovery

    AI material discovery

    Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

    AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

    Reports of underwater activity

    Reports of activity on blockchain networks

    Reports of activity in academic communities

    Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

    Reports of activity in online video games

    Reports about people getting scammed

    AI-related cult

    AI system demonstrates general robotic control

    AI causes significant stock market event

    Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

    AI-related archaeology

    Major AI safety incident or accident

    AI system makes scientific breakthrough

    AI system solves major unsolved math problem

    An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

    AI-related nuclear weapon use

    49

    45

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    40

    40

    40

    39

    38

    38

    36

    35

    35

    35

    34

    34

    30

    30

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    26

    25

    25

    25

    24

    21

    21

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    18

    15

    15

    15

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    OptionProbability

    YouTube

    TikTok

    Other

    WhatsApp

    Instagram

    WeChat

    65

    30

    2

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1141

    876

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1041

    938

    Will Meta sell/divest from WhatsApp before 2028?

    Jan 28, 5:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    16%chance
    6140

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    229

    44

    Quebec flag emoji by 2030? ⚜️

    Jun 24, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    16.9%chance
    5138

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    228

    46

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