OptionProbability
Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods
Well-known researcher attempts to reproduce global workspace results on open-weight models
Well-known researcher uses Anthropic’s methods on open-weight models to find novel evidence of a global workspace
Paper providing independent evidence of global workspace passes peer review in any major conference
Well-known researcher casts public doubt on Anthropic’s claims, methods, or results
70
59
54
47
40
Opus 5.1 or higher update before Q4
Anthropic partners with a major cloud provider for exclusive compute capacity
Claude introduces long-term memory or persistent workspace features
Haiku gets it's 5 version
Antropics IPO happens before Nov '26
Anthropic launches a new enterprise-focused data analysis tool
Anthropic acquires a specialized AI research startup
Fable retires before EOY
Claude monthly plan pricing is reduced by more than 20%
Anthropic announces an open-weights model release
85
53
52
37
30
26
15
8
7
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1149
427
263
38
176
1000
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