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Prediction markets for Workspace
OptionProbability
100
100
84
75
69
60
49
43
26
10
5
3
2
Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Jul 11, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
101622
OptionProbability
70
59
54
52
47
Will "A global workspace in language models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 6, 10:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
30.47%chance
9544
OptionVotes
1149
427
Will Gmail introduce a streaming mode like what's used by discord by EOY 2027?
Apr 22, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.64%chance
4171
OptionVotes
263
38
Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?
May 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
12%chance
298
OptionVotes
176
85
Will Trump move the White House press corps out of the West Wing briefing room by Dec 31, 2026?
Oct 26, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44%chance
449
OptionVotes
125
45
Will "A Review of Anthropic's Global Workspace Paper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 8, 3:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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