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Top stories

WhatsApp Adds AI ‘Writing Help’ Tool to Rephrase and Proof Messages

WhatsApp Adds AI ‘Writing Help’ Tool to Rephrase and Proof Messages

Authors

13

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Writing Help

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44%chance

20031595840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4892

3847

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.32%chance

5110194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

902

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?

Oct 18, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:13 PM

744793

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2045

Before 2040

It will always consider Gaza a Genocide

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

63

62

58

52

51

49

42

36

33

3

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.75%chance

211962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2273

747

Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI

Aug 6, 6:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.79%chance

341846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

869

Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?

Feb 4, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.64%chance

151110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1961

510

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

15336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

949

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

60

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

[Carlini questions] Most improvements in best AI systems direct result of the prior generation of AI systems

Mar 24, 2:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2027

66

41

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Software
AI Products
Tech
WhatsApp Adds AI ‘Writing Help’ Tool to Rephrase and Proof Messages
Authors
13
3 months ago

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