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Top stories

WhatsApp Adds AI ‘Writing Help’ Tool to Rephrase and Proof Messages

WhatsApp Adds AI ‘Writing Help’ Tool to Rephrase and Proof Messages

Authors

13

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Writing Help

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

52%chance

20741811198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4520

4168

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

37.47%chance

5511514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

660

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?

Oct 18, 9:15 PMJan 1, 10:13 PM

755000

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2035

It will always consider Gaza a Genocide

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

63

62

58

55

52

49

30

12

10

1

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

111852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1781

562

By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"?

Oct 18, 3:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16718

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

37

27

21

20

18

17

13

12

4

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027

Mar 24, 2:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7438

OptionProbability

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 25

26 - 50

51 - 100

101 - 500

Above 500

93

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?

Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

80.83%chance

15336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

949

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

60

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

[Carlini questions] Most improvements in best AI systems direct result of the prior generation of AI systems

Mar 24, 2:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

370

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2027

66

41

Will "Help keep AI under human control: Palisade Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 4:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
Software
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WhatsApp Adds AI ‘Writing Help’ Tool to Rephrase and Proof Messages
Authors
13
5 months ago

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