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Prediction markets for Writing Help
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
57%chance
19241445440
OptionVotes
4997
3766
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
51.82%chance
5110184
OptionVotes
1050
912
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?
Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.01%chance
211912
OptionVotes
2223
753
Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI
Aug 6, 6:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
6.97%chance
331796
OptionVotes
1970
873
Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?
Feb 4, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
27.05%chance
12791
OptionVotes
1642
609
OptionVotes
1413
708
Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
19.93%chance
14535
OptionVotes
1329
744
Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?
Sep 19, 1:39 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM
80.83%chance
15336
OptionVotes
1133
949
OptionProbability
67
63
61
53
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030
Mar 24, 2:05 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
5212
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