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Prediction markets for Writing Help
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
58.84%chance
22502116876
OptionVotes
5192
3628
OptionProbability
50
25
20
18
15
15
14
13
11
10
10
0
0
0
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
76.02%chance
6514148
OptionVotes
1660
648
Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?
May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.19%chance
5010868
OptionVotes
14635
3225
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.13%chance
215978
OptionVotes
10497
2690
Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?
Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
19.93%chance
14535
OptionVotes
1329
744
Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 10, 10:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.22%chance
1500
OptionVotes
1500
936
Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?
Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.91%chance
7487
OptionVotes
1319
797
OptionVotes
214
154
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 10, 6:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.76%chance
6240
OptionVotes
1188
972
The New York Times will have an article mentioning Herasight by the end of:
Aug 4, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6158
OptionProbability
82
74
66
66
24
15
Will "Help keep AI under human control: Palisade Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 20, 4:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
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