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Yōtei Six News

    Prediction markets for Yōtei Six

    OptionProbability

    Assassin's Creed Shadows

    Red Dead Redemption 2

    Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

    Halo: The Master Chief Collection

    Call of Duty: Black Ops 7

    Assassin's Creed Mirage

    Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024

    Crimson Desert

    Grand Theft Auto VI

    Grand Theft Auto IV

    Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater

    Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege

    Grand Theft Auto V

    Tom Clancy's The Division

    100

    84

    79

    72

    70

    69

    62

    58

    51

    36

    35

    32

    20

    17

    OptionProbability

    Demon Slayer

    Jujutsu Kaisen

    Wicked

    Minecraft

    Taylor Swift

    Inside Out

    Boruto

    Among Us

    League of Legends

    Neon Genesis Evangelion

    Doja Cat

    Mr Beast

    Hazbin Hotel

    Oppenheimer OR Barbenheimer

    Shovel Knight

    Borderlands

    Rainbow Six

    Metal Gear Solid

    Half Life

    Dota 2

    Palworld

    Mean Girls

    Argylle

    Skibidi Toilet

    Rationalussy

    100

    100

    100

    84

    71

    36

    36

    30

    30

    28

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    22

    21

    20

    17

    16

    16

    15

    13

    9

    1

    Jet Lag: The Game Season Nineteen Truth Statements

    Aug 19, 8:06 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM
    173620

    OptionProbability

    Someone mentions Brian McManus

    We get an episode of The Snack Zone

    Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned

    An athlete has to answer a riddle

    An athlete eats sushi

    Any athlete references any Nintendo character

    Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"

    An athlete speaks Japanese

    This season has more than five episodes

    This season has more than six episodes

    Sam says "We are so back" **

    We see Mount Fuji

    An athlete doesn't visit Tokyo during game time

    Someone buys a gachapon

    Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **

    We see a samurai sword

    An athlete eats ramen

    Ben gets drunk (canonically)

    An athlete rides a bicycle

    An athlete swims

    Sam mentions Formula One

    Sam shows the camera a plane with pokemon, hello kitty or star wars characters on it

    We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew

    We see a monkey in the same frame as Ben

    Tom says "I am at"

    One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*

    Adam wears a wig

    An athlete travels by plane

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    89

    82

    80

    78

    72

    67

    57

    54

    33

    30

    26

    26

    21

    17

    16

    7

    6

    2

    NFL Week 4 - Prop Bets

    Aug 30, 11:07 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM
    132286

    OptionProbability

    35% or higher Kick Return rate

    At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

    Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

    Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

    Any team scores 40+ points

    At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

    Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

    Pick Six

    Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

    Overtime

    AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

    Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

    Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

    MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)

    Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

    Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

    2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

    Will a championship belt change teams?*

    A 4th and 11+ is converted*

    California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

    At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

    A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

    Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

    For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

    4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

    A player gets an Octopus

    A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

    The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

    Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

    3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

    Fake Punt

    A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

    Fat Guy Touchdown*

    All Starting Rookie QBs lose

    Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

    Safety Scored

    Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

    Any 400 yard passer

    Shutout

    For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

    Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

    Scorigami

    All Starting Rookie QBs win

    Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

    Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

    86

    86

    80

    74

    74

    72

    69

    66

    60

    59

    59

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    45

    44

    44

    43

    41

    41

    41

    37

    37

    35

    34

    34

    31

    31

    31

    24

    24

    21

    20

    19

    9

    NFL Week 11 - Prop Bets

    Aug 30, 11:10 PMNov 23, 11:59 PM
    72208

    OptionProbability

    35% or higher Kick Return rate

    At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

    Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

    Pick Six

    Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

    Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

    Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

    At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

    Any team scores 40+ points

    Overtime

    Safety Scored

    California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

    Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

    AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

    Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

    Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

    Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

    Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

    2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

    Will a championship belt change teams?*

    A 4th and 11+ is converted*

    At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

    Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

    For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

    4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

    Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

    A player gets an Octopus

    A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

    A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

    The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

    Fake Punt

    MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)

    Fat Guy Touchdown*

    All Starting Rookie QBs lose

    3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

    Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

    A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

    Shutout

    Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    Any 400 yard passer

    All Starting Rookie QBs win

    For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

    A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

    Scorigami

    Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

    Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

    86

    86

    80

    80

    80

    78

    71

    69

    69

    69

    55

    54

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    45

    45

    45

    45

    44

    41

    41

    41

    41

    37

    37

    34

    34

    31

    31

    31

    26

    24

    24

    20

    20

    5

    NFL Week 8 - Prop Bets

    Aug 30, 11:09 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM
    82189

    OptionProbability

    35% or higher Kick Return rate

    At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

    Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

    Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

    At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

    Pick Six

    Overtime

    California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

    A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

    Safety Scored

    Fake Punt

    Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

    Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

    Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

    Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

    Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

    Any 400 yard passer

    Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

    2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

    Will a championship belt change teams?*

    A 4th and 11+ is converted*

    At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

    Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

    For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

    4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

    AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

    A player gets an Octopus

    A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

    All Starting Rookie QBs lose

    The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

    Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

    MVP Favorite Changes by Wednesday (Josh Allen)

    Fat Guy Touchdown*

    3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

    Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

    A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

    Any team scores 40+ points

    For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

    A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

    All Starting Rookie QBs win

    Scorigami

    Shutout

    Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

    Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

    Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

    90

    80

    74

    74

    72

    72

    69

    59

    55

    55

    54

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

    45

    45

    45

    44

    41

    41

    41

    37

    37

    34

    34

    31

    24

    24

    22

    20

    20

    17

    14

    5

    OptionProbability

    Three

    Four

    Two

    Five

    Zero

    One

    Six or more

    71

    19

    6

    2

    1

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

    Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

    Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

    To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

    [Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

    Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

    [At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

    [At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    46

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Abed will say "cool…cool cool cool"

    Jeff will give an inspirational speech

    🎵 Troy and Abed (something something) 🎵 (eg. in the morning)

    Inspector Spacetime will be referenced

    Starburns will feature

    Professor Duncan will feature

    Britta will be called "the worst"

    Garrett will feature

    "Britta" will be used as a verb

    "Six seasons and a movie" will be mentioned

    Magnitude will feature

    (Fat) Neil will feature

    Frankie will feature

    Troy's AC/Plumbing story will be referenced

    Hickey will feature

    Someone will shoot a paintball gun

    Elroy will feature

    Dungeons and Dragons will be played

    There will be a pillow/blanket fort

    Abed will wear a cape

    Annie's Boobs (the monkey) will feature

    Pierce will feature

    It will be released in 2024

    93

    91

    81

    79

    71

    70

    65

    62

    62

    61

    59

    56

    52

    50

    48

    44

    39

    37

    36

    34

    23

    17

    0

    OptionProbability

    At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

    Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

    A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

    Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

    At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

    No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

    A counterexample was found for Goldbach's conjecture

    P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

    97

    41

    37

    31

    25

    14

    10

    9

    Debut (Taylor's Version) prop bets

    Jul 23, 4:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    2818

    OptionProbability

    It debuts at #1 on the Billboard 200

    Pitchfork rates it 5.0 or higher

    Metacritic rating is 60 or higher after a week

    Metacritic rating is 70 or higher after a week

    Jack Antonoff has at least one production credit

    Aaron Dessner has at least one production credit

    Pitchfork rates it higher than the original (>6.7)

    More than six vault tracks are included

    Pitchfork rates it 7.5 or higher

    The album is released on 23 October 2026

    A piano version of the album is also released

    It sweeps the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100

    A pop version of the album is also released

    The album is announced on 7 August 2026

    80

    80

    80

    80

    80

    80

    69

    63

    60

    50

    39

    37

    31

    0

    OptionProbability

    Human spends six months on the Moon

    Human lands on Mars

    60

    40

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