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Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

1 year ago

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Trump Displays Putin Photo After Alaska Summit, Weighs Russia Penalties

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Bruce Willis Moved to 24/7 Care Home as Dementia Progresses, Wife Says

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Spike Lee’s ‘Highest 2 Lowest’ Hits Theaters Ahead of Apple TV+ Debut

1 year ago

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

6082

164

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

11.68%chance

10215083

OptionVotes

YES

2750

364

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

Feb 7, 5:57 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

15%chance

5210060

OptionVotes

YES

2380

420

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Dec 23, 1:53 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

374594

OptionProbability

Greenland

Panama Canal

Other

Canada

Yucatán

Baja

Sonora

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234504

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

5.56%chance

204177

OptionVotes

YES

4122

243

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Jan 21, 6:05 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

56.36%chance

142018

OptionVotes

YES

1137

880

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.71%chance

271960

OptionVotes

YES

1109

881

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

1167

885

Which U.S. late-night show host will still be hosting their show by Dec 2028, given recent firings and suspensions.

Sep 19, 8:38 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

18621

OptionProbability

Jimmy Kimmel

Seth Meyers

John Oliver

Jimmy Fallon

Bill Maher

Stephen Colbert

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

136

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

YES

1061

942

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Prediction markets for ABC News

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Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

JD Vance and Usha Vance announce separation or divorce before June 1st 2029

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Which U.S. late-night show host will still be hosting their show by Dec 2028, given recent firings and suspensions.

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

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