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    World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

    Jun 25, 3:43 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    19983512

    OptionProbability

    Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

    Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

    Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

    Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

    Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

    Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

    A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    ≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

    DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

    ≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

    Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

    World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

    United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

    At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

    Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

    India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

    A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

    United States troops enter Iran

    Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

    Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

    Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

    Donald Trump remains President of USA

    Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

    USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

    Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

    Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

    Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

    Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

    A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

    Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

    Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

    Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

    Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

    1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

    123

    A country declares war on Israel

    The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

    An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

    A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

    Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

    Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

    A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

    A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

    Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

    North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

    China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

    Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

    At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

    Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

    A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

    Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

    North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

    Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

    Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

    Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

    Iran loses territory

    Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

    Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

    A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

    Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

    A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

    At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

    A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

    Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

    160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

    A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

    Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

    United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

    Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

    An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

    Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

    Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

    An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

    Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

    Iran undergoes a regime change

    Sudanese Civil War ends

    Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

    Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

    Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

    United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

    Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

    Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

    North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

    Egypt formally declares war on another country

    Israel loses territory

    Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

    Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    China invades Taiwan

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

    Any country leaves NATO

    Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

    India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

    China formally declares war on another country

    Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

    Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Successful military coup in Venezuela

    The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

    Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

    The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

    Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

    United States formally declares war on another country

    Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

    Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

    USA leaves NATO

    Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

    World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

    United States formally declares war on Iran

    Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

    Iranian troops enter Israel

    Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    A country declares war on United States

    Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

    Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

    United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

    At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

    Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

    Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

    Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

    Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

    Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

    Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

    Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

    Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

    Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

    Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

    Israel annexes any portion of Iran

    A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

    Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    Humans will extinct

    Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    97

    92

    92

    87

    84

    84

    84

    82

    75

    69

    65

    63

    63

    62

    59

    52

    51

    48

    47

    47

    47

    47

    46

    45

    45

    45

    45

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    39

    39

    38

    37

    36

    36

    36

    36

    36

    34

    34

    32

    32

    31

    30

    30

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    26

    26

    25

    24

    24

    24

    23

    22

    22

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    19

    19

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    16

    16

    16

    15

    15

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    13

    13

    12

    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Canada [2025]

    Israel [2025]

    Japan [2025]

    United Kingdom [2025]

    Egypt [2025]

    Malaysia [2025]

    South Korea [2025]

    UAE [2025]

    Turkey [2026]

    China [2026]

    Ireland [2026]

    Philippines [2026]

    Dominican Republic [2026]

    Singapore [2026]

    Mexico [2026]

    Indonesia [2026]

    Cambodia [2026]

    Australia [2026]

    Hong Kong [2026]

    Brazil [2026]

    India [2026]

    Argentina [2026]

    Tunesia [2026]

    Macau [2026]

    Ukraine [2026]

    Canada [2026]

    Morocco [2026]

    New Zealand [2026]

    Tanzania [2026]

    Nepal [2026]

    Taiwan [2026]

    South Africa [2026]

    Iran [2026]

    Cuba [2026]

    Peru [2026]

    Ethiopia [2026]

    Chile [2026]

    Kenya [2026]

    Argentina [2025]

    Australia [2025]

    China [2025]

    Cuba [2025]

    India [2025]

    Iran [2025]

    Kenya [2025]

    Macau [2025]

    New Zealand [2025]

    South Africa [2025]

    Taiwan [2025]

    Brazil [2025]

    Cambodia [2025]

    Chile [2025]

    Dominican Republic [2025]

    Ethiopia [2025]

    Hong Kong [2025]

    Indonesia [2025]

    Ireland [2025]

    Mexico [2025]

    Morocco [2025]

    Nepal [2025]

    Peru [2025]

    Philippines [2025]

    Singapore [2025]

    Tanzania [2025]

    Tunesia [2025]

    Turkey [2025]

    Ukraine [2025]

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    97

    59

    21

    11

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which World Leaders will be out in 2026?

    Feb 20, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    478647

    OptionProbability

    Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister)

    Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)

    Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)

    Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel Prime Minister)

    Christopher Luxon (New Zealand Prime Minister)

    Emmanuel Macron (France President)

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine Prime Minister)

    Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa Prime Minister)

    Donald Trump (United States President)

    Anthony Albanese (Australia Prime Minister)

    Javier Milei (Argentina President)

    Nayib Bukele (El Salvador President)

    Vladimir Putin (Russia President)

    100

    97

    70

    48

    39

    10

    7

    7

    6

    5

    4

    4

    2

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Costa Rica

    Guyana

    Argentina

    Germany

    Brazil

    Mexico

    Chile

    Barbados

    Ethiopia

    Italy

    Canada

    France

    Venezuela

    46

    37

    7

    4

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    ⚽️ FIFA World Cup (Men's) Prop Bets 🎲

    Apr 15, 2:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    211585

    OptionProbability

    A team from Europe wins the World Cup

    Brazil wins a World Cup by the year 2100

    A team reaches 6 World Cups (in total) by the year 2100

    France wins a World Cup by the year 2100

    Germany wins a World Cup by the year 2100

    A team wins back-to-back World Cups by the year 2100

    A team reaches 7 World Cups (in total) by the year 2100

    A team from South America wins the World Cup

    USA wins a World Cup by 2100

    Argentina wins back-to-back World Cups

    A team scores 10+ goals in any single match

    The FIFA Wold Cup (Men's) dissolves before 2050

    Belgium wins a World Cup by 2050

    99

    82

    81

    79

    76

    72

    59

    51

    50

    16

    13

    13

    11

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Japan

    Switzerland

    United Kingdom

    Gaza

    Argentina

    Bhutan

    None of the above / nobody can be trusted

    Antarctiaca/UN/other such orgs

    USA

    India

    New Zealand

    China

    EU

    Ireland

    Vatican City

    Singapore

    16

    12

    11

    11

    11

    10

    7

    5

    5

    4

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

    Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM
    9569

    OptionProbability

    South Africa

    New Zealand

    France

    Ireland

    England

    Other

    Argentina

    31

    26

    16

    11

    9

    5

    3

    OptionProbability

    🇪🇸 Spain

    🇫🇷 France

    🇧🇷 Brazil

    🇵🇹 Portugal

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

    🇦🇷 Argentina

    🇮🇹 Italy

    🇳🇱 Netherlands

    🇳🇴 Norway

    🇲🇦 Morocco

    🇩🇪 Germany

    🇧🇪 Belgium

    🇨🇭 Switzerland

    🇯🇵 Japan

    🇩🇰 Denmark

    🇦🇹 Austria

    🇪🇬 Egypt

    🇺🇸 USA

    🇭🇷 Croatia

    🇬🇷 Greece

    🇸🇳 Senegal

    🇩🇿 Algeria

    🇮🇪 Republic of Ireland

    🇪🇨 Ecuador

    🇵🇪 Peru

    39

    35

    19

    17

    13

    13

    9

    9

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Copa America 2028: Winner

    Aug 9, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    10310

    OptionProbability

    Argentina

    Brazil

    Colombia

    Uruguay

    Ecuador

    Chile

    Peru

    Paraguay

    Venezuela

    United States

    Other

    31

    29

    7

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    OptionProbability

    Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises

    Venezuela

    Other

    Haiti

    Brazil

    Dominican Republic

    Peru

    Argentina

    Bahamas

    Ecuador

    Panama

    Suriname

    38

    29

    26

    6

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Spain

    Germany

    Brazil

    Argentina

    Portugal

    41

    23

    9

    9

    9

    8

    OptionProbability

    France

    Ireland

    Wales

    Argentina

    Scotland

    Fiji

    Samoa

    Japan

    USA

    Other

    13

    12

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

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