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Top stories

Gunman Fires 180 Rounds at CDC Atlanta Campus, Shatters 150 Windows

Gunman Fires 180 Rounds at CDC Atlanta Campus, Shatters 150 Windows

Authors

13

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Agency

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.8%chance

5223298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

905

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM

41.27%chance

322166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

754

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

16.58%chance

252077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2243

446

Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?

Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.09%chance

181589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1860

659

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

965

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 19, 3:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

14.91%chance

15627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

909

What other government agencies will deny access to members of Congress?

Feb 7, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3558

OptionProbability

Department of Commerce

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

National Security Agency (NSA)

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

Department of Homeland Security

Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

Department of Interior

Department of Defense

Department of State

Department of Energy

Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA)

36

36

33

33

33

33

33

33

33

31

31

31

31

Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards?

Mar 5, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.1%chance

3402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

732

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

737

Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.34%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 11, 2025
Aug 11, 2025
Crime
Georgia
Culture
Gunman Fires 180 Rounds at CDC Atlanta Campus, Shatters 150 Windows
Authors
13
2 days ago

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