Agency News

Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction

10 months ago

Imperial Household Agency Expands Instagram to Include Akishino, Hitachi, Mikasa, Takamatsu Families and Princess Aiko with Monthly Posts

10 months ago

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

986

955

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

9.9%chance

283080

OptionVotes

YES

3021

332

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.45%chance

172383

OptionVotes

YES

1626

615

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM

41.27%chance

322166

OptionVotes

YES

1231

754

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.83%chance

241272

OptionVotes

YES

1080

965

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

YES

1008

987

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

YES

993

Did federal agencies have advance warning of Jan 6 and fail to prevent it?

Jan 2, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

578

OptionProbability

Yes, because of incompetence or disorganization

Yes, for any other reason

Yes, for psyop purposes or enabling a crackdown

Major space agency funds research into Dyson Swarm technology by 2030?

Apr 8, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

144

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1051

737

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

1013

998

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1007

999

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Britain
Natural Resources
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Sharkey Threatens Environment Agency With Legal Action Over River Lea Abstraction
Authors
3
10 months ago
Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Japan
Culture
World
Imperial Household Agency Expands Instagram to Include Akishino, Hitachi, Mikasa, Takamatsu Families and Princess Aiko with Monthly Posts
Authors
9
10 months ago

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Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?

Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?

Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?

Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

Did federal agencies have advance warning of Jan 6 and fail to prevent it?

Major space agency funds research into Dyson Swarm technology by 2030?

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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