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Prediction markets for Agency
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?
Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
80.8%chance
5223298
OptionVotes
997
905
Will a global AI watchdog be set up in London, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency, by Jan 1 2026?
Jun 3, 1:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.62%chance
193139
OptionVotes
3410
451
Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?
Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
13.53%chance
272425
OptionVotes
2528
395
Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?
Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM
41.27%chance
322166
OptionVotes
1231
754
Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035
Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.83%chance
241272
OptionVotes
1080
965
By 2026, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?
May 19, 3:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
11.99%chance
16927
OptionVotes
1661
863
[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM
66.16%chance
20810
OptionVotes
1008
987
Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards?
Mar 5, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.1%chance
3402
OptionVotes
1366
732
By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?
May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
27.75%chance
10105
OptionVotes
993
993
Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.85%chance
251
OptionVotes
1051
737
Will "Decomposing Agency — capabilities without desires" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 31, 12:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.34%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992
Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.9%chance
17
OptionVotes
1007
999
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