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Prediction markets for Agency
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?
Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.8%chance
5323348
OptionVotes
986
955
Will DOGE/Trump manage to shutdown at least 100 Federal agencies by 2029?
Dec 9, 1:00 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
9.75%chance
283106
OptionVotes
3047
329
Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?
Jun 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.08%chance
182716
OptionVotes
1562
640
Will a manned mission to Mars be officially announced by a government space agency by 2030?
Mar 24, 9:32 AMDec 31, 6:14 PM
41.27%chance
322166
OptionVotes
1231
754
Space agency announces mission to divert asteroid 2024 YR4 before 22 Dec 2032
Jan 29, 3:06 AMDec 22, 12:00 AM
1%chance
171966
OptionVotes
995
10
Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035
Jul 28, 9:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.83%chance
241272
OptionVotes
1080
965
[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM
66.16%chance
20810
OptionVotes
1008
987
By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?
May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
27.75%chance
10105
OptionVotes
993
993
Did federal agencies have advance warning of Jan 6 and fail to prevent it?
Jan 2, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
578
OptionProbability
49
31
13
7
Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.85%chance
251
OptionVotes
1051
737
Will "Towards a scale-free theory of intelligent agency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 17, 5:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.82%chance
113
OptionVotes
1013
998
Will "What, if not agency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 20, 2:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.9%chance
17
OptionVotes
1007
999
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