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Prediction markets for Arch
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
32.98%chance
5710753
OptionVotes
11036
10936
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.65%chance
625231
OptionVotes
3906
1917
OptionProbability
28
25
17
10
4
4
4
3
3
2
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
Apr 21, 8:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.48%chance
221465
OptionVotes
1909
788
OptionVotes
2014
1765
Will clued-in people be talking about ASI-Arch as a significant inflection point in July 2026?
Jul 29, 2:56 AMJul 29, 2:53 AM
25.49%chance
101127
OptionVotes
1710
585
What type of water crossing will replace the FSK Bridge in Baltimore?
Mar 27, 1:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11443
OptionProbability
62
12
8
7
2
2
2
2
2
Will Quinn Ewers defeat Arch Manning's NFL team in a conference championship or Super Bowl?
Sep 15, 2:34 AMMar 16, 4:59 AM
35.43%chance
2370
OptionVotes
1350
741
Will Google Open Source a 7b or larger model based on their Titans Architecture before 2026?
Mar 8, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47%chance
8308
OptionVotes
1062
942
OptionVotes
180
56
OptionProbability
26
25
20
20
10
Will I find a way to archive Mojang's JIRA/Atlassian instance before it goes down? (Please make suggestions.)
Jun 19, 12:59 AMJan 2, 1:55 AM
50.75%chance
225
OptionVotes
1015
985
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