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Prediction markets for Arenas
OptionVotes
17634
5729
Will MTG Arena become the canonical source of rules functionality by the end of 2026?
Nov 18, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
1.83%chance
247188
OptionVotes
7941
572
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
8.77%chance
156407
OptionVotes
3224
310
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
144373
OptionProbability
100
100
70
33
11
8
5
2
1
1
OptionProbability
79
70
64
34
34
34
31
25
18
OptionProbability
59
49
43
38
38
35
34
17
Will "New ARENA material: 8 exercise sets on alignm..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Mar 5, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.22%chance
1500
OptionVotes
1500
936
How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?
Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM
5379
OptionProbability
96
95
95
54
24
OptionVotes
241
42
At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Sep 1, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
87.12%chance
7205
OptionVotes
260
38
Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?
May 3, 3:57 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM
43%chance
792
OptionVotes
115
87
OptionVotes
87
57