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Prediction markets for ARN
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
800
12
Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?
May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
6.85%chance
16523
OptionVotes
369
27
Will "Duane Arnold" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 26, 1:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.3%chance
2370
OptionVotes
1350
952
Will Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) be used/studied in at least five orals at NeurIPS 2027?
May 2, 7:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7.99%chance
11323
OptionVotes
339
29
Will Tyler Arnold (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18%chance
5191
OptionVotes
239
112
Will Bernard Arnault (CEO of Louis Vuitton) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Mar 21, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.13%chance
4112
OptionVotes
202
55
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?
Apr 21, 10:24 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM
35.17%chance
550
OptionVotes
163
88
Will Yisong Yue (caltech) and frances Arnold (Caltech) appear in an academic paper together?
Aug 11, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30


